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Talk:Mirage Island (Generation III): Difference between revisions
→Am I wrong about the probability of Mirage Island appearing?
Shiny TRex (talk | contribs) |
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The article said, "approximately 1/10870 if the player has a full party". Then somebody (should I point fingers?) changed it to 1/10923, and said, "The probability with a full party isn't 6/65536 (which reduces to approx. 1/10870); that's not how probability works. It actually is 1 - (1 - 1/65536)^6, which is approx. 1/10923." According to my calculator, 6/65536 reduces to approximately 1/10923, while 1-(65535/65536)^6 reduces to approximately 1/10870. Please tell me if I'm wrong. I'm willing to spend a lot of money to replace my calculator. [[User:Sumwun|sumwun]] ([[User talk:Sumwun|talk]]) 13:20, 15 July 2016 (UTC) | The article said, "approximately 1/10870 if the player has a full party". Then somebody (should I point fingers?) changed it to 1/10923, and said, "The probability with a full party isn't 6/65536 (which reduces to approx. 1/10870); that's not how probability works. It actually is 1 - (1 - 1/65536)^6, which is approx. 1/10923." According to my calculator, 6/65536 reduces to approximately 1/10923, while 1-(65535/65536)^6 reduces to approximately 1/10870. Please tell me if I'm wrong. I'm willing to spend a lot of money to replace my calculator. [[User:Sumwun|sumwun]] ([[User talk:Sumwun|talk]]) 13:20, 15 July 2016 (UTC) | ||
Quite simply your equation does not take into account the possibility of two (or more) Pokémon having overlapping PIDs | |||