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Talk:Pokéwalker: Difference between revisions
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::I've tried to explain it in English but I end up complicating it. Basically the additional knowledge of where the item is doesn't help, since it still has a 1/5 placement. If you get 1/5 and 4/5 of 1/1 and 1/4 chances, it's the same as 2/5 and 3/5 of 1/2 and 1/3. The probabilities sort of "cancel" each other... But like I said I'm terrible at explaining this in English. If there's a serious question about whether the math is right, I can double check it with my probability professor from last semester. If it comes to it I'll see if I can work with him to determine this and the expected return of the entire game. But if nobody cares I won't bother. - [[User:Exawatt|Exawatt]] 06:28, 15 April 2010 (UTC) | ::I've tried to explain it in English but I end up complicating it. Basically the additional knowledge of where the item is doesn't help, since it still has a 1/5 placement. If you get 1/5 and 4/5 of 1/1 and 1/4 chances, it's the same as 2/5 and 3/5 of 1/2 and 1/3. The probabilities sort of "cancel" each other... But like I said I'm terrible at explaining this in English. If there's a serious question about whether the math is right, I can double check it with my probability professor from last semester. If it comes to it I'll see if I can work with him to determine this and the expected return of the entire game. But if nobody cares I won't bother. - [[User:Exawatt|Exawatt]] 06:28, 15 April 2010 (UTC) | ||
:::Sorry, having reworked the problem I agree. Sorry for wasting your time. I think I read down the wrong line of my tree diagram. Would you agree that there is a 50% chance of getting an item on a given game? Given that P(pick1) = 1/6, P(pick1fails)=5/6 And P(pick2)=2/5. P(wingame)=P(pick1)+P(pick1fails)*P(pick2)=1/6+5/6*2/5=3/6=1/2=50%. Hope you can understand this. Thank you for your time and for exposing my wrongness.—[[User:Beligaronia|Beligaronia]] ([[User talk:Beligaronia|talk]]) 01:43, 16 April 2010 (UTC) | :::Sorry, having reworked the problem I agree. Sorry for wasting your time. I think I read down the wrong line of my tree diagram. Would you agree that there is a 50% chance of getting an item on a given game? Given that P(pick1) = 1/6, P(pick1fails)=5/6 And P(pick2)=2/5. P(wingame)=P(pick1)+P(pick1fails)*P(pick2)=1/6+5/6*2/5=3/6=1/2=50%. Hope you can understand this. Thank you for your time and for exposing my wrongness.—[[User:Beligaronia|Beligaronia]] ([[User talk:Beligaronia|talk]]) 01:43, 16 April 2010 (UTC) | ||
::::This was the part where my own mathematical skills broke down. I don't remember the class covering the additional "knowledge" gained after the first pick (i.e. your second pick isn't 1/5 "random"). What math I guessed at came out to total chances around ~48% (which would indicate that even with proper knowledge of the game you have a greater chance of losing), but then I did it again and came up with a much lower chance (~38%), so I know I'm doing something wrong at that point. I have discussed the above part with a math major (and real whiz), and he agrees that the second choice odds aren't affected by the position of the first choice. But... that's all I've been able to prove at this point. I'll shoot an e-mail at my professor and update when (if) he replies. - [[User:Exawatt|Exawatt]] 02:40, 18 April 2010 (UTC) | |||
== Moves == | == Moves == | ||