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Talk:Pokéwalker: Difference between revisions
→Dowsing Probabilities: I was wrong. Oops.
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Beligaronia (talk | contribs) (→Dowsing Probabilities: I was wrong. Oops.) |
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::::the probability of finding the item after picking a middle square. | ::::the probability of finding the item after picking a middle square. | ||
::I've tried to explain it in English but I end up complicating it. Basically the additional knowledge of where the item is doesn't help, since it still has a 1/5 placement. If you get 1/5 and 4/5 of 1/1 and 1/4 chances, it's the same as 2/5 and 3/5 of 1/2 and 1/3. The probabilities sort of "cancel" each other... But like I said I'm terrible at explaining this in English. If there's a serious question about whether the math is right, I can double check it with my probability professor from last semester. If it comes to it I'll see if I can work with him to determine this and the expected return of the entire game. But if nobody cares I won't bother. - [[User:Exawatt|Exawatt]] 06:28, 15 April 2010 (UTC) | ::I've tried to explain it in English but I end up complicating it. Basically the additional knowledge of where the item is doesn't help, since it still has a 1/5 placement. If you get 1/5 and 4/5 of 1/1 and 1/4 chances, it's the same as 2/5 and 3/5 of 1/2 and 1/3. The probabilities sort of "cancel" each other... But like I said I'm terrible at explaining this in English. If there's a serious question about whether the math is right, I can double check it with my probability professor from last semester. If it comes to it I'll see if I can work with him to determine this and the expected return of the entire game. But if nobody cares I won't bother. - [[User:Exawatt|Exawatt]] 06:28, 15 April 2010 (UTC) | ||
:::Sorry, having reworked the problem I agree. Sorry for wasting your time. I think I read down the wrong line of my tree diagram. Would you agree that there is a 50% chance of getting an item on a given game? Given that P(pick1) = 1/6, P(pick1fails)=5/6 And P(pick2)=2/5. P(wingame)=P(pick1)+P(pick1fails)*P(pick2)=1/6+5/6*2/5=3/6=1/2=50%. Hope you can understand this. Thank you for your time and for exposing my wrongness.—[[User:Beligaronia|Beligaronia]] ([[User talk:Beligaronia|talk]]) 01:43, 16 April 2010 (UTC) | |||
== Moves == | == Moves == | ||