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Poké Radar: Difference between revisions
→Shiny Probability: Need to distinguish between the probability of a given patch being shiny, and 1 out of the 4 patches being shiny.
(→Shiny Probability: It is less ambiguous to say that the probability of encountering a shiny "patch" increases. The general probability of finding a shiny Pokémon in any patch does not.) |
(→Shiny Probability: Need to distinguish between the probability of a given patch being shiny, and 1 out of the 4 patches being shiny.) |
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====Shiny Probability==== | ====Shiny Probability==== | ||
[[File:PokéRadarShinyProbability_IV.png|thumb|right|The formula for the probability of | [[File:PokéRadarShinyProbability_IV.png|thumb|right|The formula for the probability of patch being Shiny. n<sub>c</sub> is the number of Pokémon in the chain, up to 40.]] | ||
Based on the formula depicted at right, the probability of | Based on the formula depicted at right, the probability of a patch being Shiny can be approximated as 1/8000 for a chain of 1, 1/7800 for a chain of 2, 1/7600 for a chain of 3, and so on up to 1/200 for a chain of 40. Since up to 4 grass patches can shake at a single time, this probability can be up to 4 times as high, giving the player about a 1/50 chance of finding a shiny patch at a chain length of 40. Note that it takes a while for a chain to start paying off - the probability does not exceed that of the [[Masuda method]] until a chain length of 33. After that point, the probabilities start to increase very strongly, with a chain of 40 having double the probability (1/200) compared to a chain of 39 (1/400). While the probability of finding a Shiny patch increases as chain length increases, normal non-Shiny patches will always have the usual 1/8192 chance of containing a shiny Pokemon. | ||
As all Pokémon games prior to Generation V perform calculations strictly with integers, there exist some roundoff errors in the probability determination (as noted by the ceiling function in the formula). A game-accurate list of probabilities for each chain is as follows: | As all Pokémon games prior to Generation V perform calculations strictly with integers, there exist some roundoff errors in the probability determination (as noted by the ceiling function in the formula). A game-accurate list of probabilities for each chain is as follows: | ||